Lee, Mientkiewicz and Olerud

With the Florida Marlins winning the Carlos Delgado sweepstakes (complete with a 64 million dollar invoice), let's quickly shift gears and breakdown the three obvious next choices to man first base for the Mets in 2005.

Anyone who claims that this is an easy decision is fooling themselves. Given any of the three, I can probably put together a nice little argument that would show the other two were better. Let's look at the peripherals.


Travis Lee
Age: Turns 30 in May
Injuries: Torn Labrum in May (surgery)
Conditioning: Above Average

Speed: Average

Defense (Range): Excellent
Defense (Hands): Very Good
Defense (Footwork): Very Good

Plate Discipline: Good
Hitting: Average
Power: Above Average
XBH Power: Above Average
vs. LHP: Same against LHP and RHP.

Competitive Drive: Average
Big City Experience: None
Upside: Some
Risk: Substantial

Expected Contract: 2 years, $5.0 M

Pros: May be hungry to win a starting job with us, has not caught on yet, did fairly well in the NL East for the Phillies a few years ago, low profile guy and very professional.

Cons: Torn labrum recovery is a wild card, has never had to be a starter in a place like NY, played in semi-hitter's parks, because of Boras, will make more than he's worth, probably require a 2-year deal. Born and raised on the West Coast, went to College in San Diego, may not be an East Coast guy.

Doug Mientkiewicz
Age: Turns 31 around All-Star Break
Injuries: None, healthy
Conditioning: Above Average

Speed: Below Average

Defense (Range): Very Good
Defense (Hands): Excellent
Defense (Footwork): Very Good

Plate Discipline: Very Good
Hitting: Above Average
Power: Below Average
XBH Power: Average
vs. LHP: Same against LHP and RHP.

Competitive Drive: Above Average
Big City Experience: None (didn't fare well in Boston)
Upside: Peaked
Risk: Substantial (could be .300 hitter, could be .240 hitter)

Expected Contract: 1 year, ~$3.0 million, and prospect(s)

Pros: Known for his glove, very professional and competitive. Has a high upside if he can return to the .300/12 hitter he was that could draw 70+ walks a season. Versatile (can hit #2 or as a low RBI man if needed). Walk year.

Cons: Inconsistent, two good years mixed with two bad years, last year being downright awful. May be too hard on himself mentally to handle challenges of NY. Will cost prospects, will probably sign somewhere else in 2006 and may not want to be on the Mets in 2005 (could end up just playing out the string).

John Olerud
Age: Turns 37 around All-Star Break
Injuries: Ankle (from post-season, was seen with cast recently)
Conditioning: Average

Speed: Poor

Defense (Range): Average
Defense (Hands): Excellent
Defense (Footwork): Excellent

Plate Discipline: Superior (80-100 walks each full season)
Hitting: Above Average
Power: Below Average
XBH Power: Average
vs. LHP: Noticeably better against RHP

Competitive Drive: Average
Big City Experience: Lots (did great with Mets)
Upside: None, on the downslope
Risk: None (safe bet for between .260 and .280)

Expected Contract: 1 year, ~$2.0 million

Pros: One of the best plate discipline guys in all of baseball. Knows the game offensively and defensively better than all other options. Played in real bad pitcher's park in off 2002 and 2003 seasons, hit .280 with the Yankees and could be a .280 hitter for the Mets -- Shea loves lefties. Versatile (can hit #2 or as a low RBI man if needed). Mets fans love the guy and so does the NY Media. Eats up RHP and would make a fine LH option to go with Jason Phillips.

Cons: Might be done, ankle could be injured. Short term solution only, very slow baserunner and may have lost too much power. Not as good against LHP. Certainly not a "younger and faster" addition.

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Frankly I would feel the best if the Mets went out and signed two of them, letting them battle it out for the starting job in ST, keeping the other one around and trading somewhere at the deadline. Not sure you could get Lee to agree to that. Olerud may be willing and Mientkiewicz wouldn't really have a choice.

Something else to take into consideration is the platoon scenario. John Olerud is a career .300 hitter against right-handers. He still hits RHP well (42 points higher in 2003, 20 points higher in 2002 and almost 80 points higher in 2001.). If you take into consideration that the Mets may want to start Jason Phillips against LHP, Olerud is clearly the best of the three candidates as the left-handed side of a platoon. Both Doug and Travis hit around .270 against LHP and RHP.

In all honesty, if the GM reigns were in my hands, I would actually look to sign Olerud first, and then trade for Mientkiewicz also. Once I signed Olerud the Red Sox would have little leverage on me so a trade for Mientkiewicz might be more reasonable.

I feel Olerud still has something to give, even at 36, and think he'd be revitalized coming back to Shea playing where he was at his best a few years back. On the flip side, if Mientkiewicz came on strong, I would relegate Olerud to be my backup first baseman and first tier pinch hitter (while looking to get Doug linked in with an extension). It would be a win/win for the Mets, and the odds of success are increased.