Todd Helton at Shea

Todd Helton has been a popular name among Mets fans lately in potential trade scenarios. As opposed to discussing contract details at this point in time, I am going to break down how Helton might perform playing for the Mets in the NL East.

Helton has been a reliable machine for the Rockies since he was called up at 23 years of age in 1997. Over the last 7 years, he has played in at least 152 games each season, having missed a total of 34 games in the past 7 years (an average of 4.8 games missed per season). Essentially, you can rely on him being in the lineup every single night.

The Road

If you were to focus specifically on Helton's road numbers (so as not to let playing in Coors inflate his numbers), he has 832 road at-bats between 2002 and 2004. Here are his road projections for a full year for the past 3 seasons:

AB: 554
H: 172
2B: 43
HR: 22
BB: 109
K: 85
AVG: .310
OBP: .422
SLG: .517
OPS: .939

Over the past 3 seasons, Helton has gotten 31 plate appearances at Shea Stadium. In that stretch, he hit .385 with a .484 OBP, 3 homeruns and a 1.292 OPS. Over his entire career, in 26 games at Shea, he's a .322 hitter with an OPS over 1.000.

Improvement

Helton hit 91 homeruns between 2000 and 2001, but has since settled into more of a 30 HR guy, with between 30 and 32 HR over the past three seasons. Aside from the small drop in power numbers, Helton has actually been improving his offensive game in several ways:

• Pitches-per-plate-appearance on the rise.
  
• BB/PA numbers have been increasing every year.
  
• BB/K numbers have gone up every year.
• Increasing offensive numbers on the road.
  

Essentially, Todd has been transforming himself into one of the games most elite professional hitters. He has an excellent eye, his plate discipline has been improving and his road average has been increasing (Up to .326 last year from .284 in 2002). Essentially, Todd has completely found his swing and feels as comfortable now out of Coors as he does in it.

The Measuring Stick

By comparison, Manny Ramirez, considered by many to be an elite hitting machine, hit only .301 on the road this past season (despite getting to play a ton of games in band boxes like Yankee Stadium, Camden Yards and against the ferocious pitching of the Devil Rays). In the meantime, Helton's division includes quite a few big yards like PETCO Park and Dodger Stadium (both considered tougher than Shea Stadium).

Manny has hit for slightly more power on the road than Manny, but when you take into consideration the away parks they play in, the fact that Helton has superior average, walk and strikeout numbers (and significantly more doubles), the difference may not be as far off as one might think. Manny is actually older than Helton as well, and then there is the defense ...

The Throwback

If you take a look at John Olerud's numbers as a member of the Mets (1997-1999) it paints a very similar picture to what you might get from Helton. Olerud roughly 20 homeruns in each of the three seasons, with batting averages between .294 and .354. Like Helton, Olerud played gold glove defense at first and had a very similar BB/K ratio. If you miss the days of John Olerud, Helton is your man (with a little more to offer with the stick and more leadership).

The Predictions

It is likely that Helton will not be a Met in 2005. The primary reason would have to be the combination of his contract (which runs through 2011 and age 38) and the fact he can also veto any trade. Taking a leap of faith, however, this is how I feel Helton would do as a member of the Mets going forward:

2005 (Age 31/32): .325, 27 HR, .430 OBP
2006 (Age 32/33): .330, 22 HR, .440 OBP
2007 (Age 33/34): .308, 25 HR, .410 OBP
2008 (Age 34/35): .315, 21 HR, .430 OBP
2009 (Age 35/36): .298, 18 HR, .410 OBP
2010 (Age 36/37): .305, 18 HR, .415 OBP
2011 (Age 37/38): .275, 14 HR, .385 OBP

I firmly believe that Todd would succeed at Shea, specifically in the next 3-5 years, and provide that consistent and reliable lefty bat the Mets have needed since Olerud's departure in 1999.

If you are wondering about the ages, Todd's birthday is right around the All-Star break.