Your Move Omar

With the hot stove season just around the corner newly appointed General Manager Omar Minaya is getting ready to hit the free agent market. Let's review the facts:

1. Owner Fred Wilpon wants a winner. The sooner the better.
2. The Mets are strapped with some aging vets that can't be easily shed.
3. Minaya has good ties with many Latin American players (and coaches).
4. The Mets have money to spend, especially with the birth of the Mets Network.
5. Minaya wants to make a splash and establish his prowess.
6. The Mets are in dire need of increasing ticket sales.

Given the facts, one would have to believe that the Mets will make an attempt to be competitive in 2005. Piazza, Glavine (and possibly Leiter) are a large chunk of the nucleus of the team, and none of them are getting any younger. In all honesty, this could be the last season that either of them has any kind of value.

Wilpon will increase payroll this year and Minaya I am sure made that one of the key reasons he'd be willing to come here. He's probably had as much as one can take when it comes to being cheap beyond reason. Minaya's player evaluation skills have always been solid and Fred will probably entrust Minaya in that regard more than he has with previous GM's.

I have resisted making "predictions" thus far, because predictions are mathematically bound to fail and make one look bad. On the other hand, the unadulterated glory that comes from being right on a prediction is just too much to resist!

Phase 1: Longshots

Out of the gates, the Mets will probably extend a phone call or two out to Scott Boras regarding Carlos Beltran. The Mets would have to be insane not to atleast investigate the scene here. Boras will no doubt initially request something grotesque, outdated and laughable along the lines of $20 Million per season for 8 years.

In the current economy those numbers wont even make it through the initial phone call and teams will quickly be talking in the $15 Million per season range and option years, etc. I expect the Mets to put in a bid but chances are they fall out of the running quickly when its made known that Beltran isn't all that interested in playing for the lowly New York Mets.

In addition, the Mets will probably put out feelers on Matt Clement and Carl Pavano but come to the conclusion that Kris Benson is their best bet. If Benson has no interest in the Mets then he may sign with Atlanta, but he'd get less money to do so. In the end, since I think Benson is really only in this for the money, he'll re-sign with the Mets, making his wife (and his bank account) happy.

Phase 2: Pop.

I think the Mets will decide to let Richard Hidalgo walk. They may offer him some sort of lowball contract where he can be used as a 400 at-bat outfielder but chances are he gets a better offer from some team that plays in a bandbox and goes there.

The Mets will then extend serious invitations to free agents Carlos Delgado and Magglio Ordonez, and in all honesty, I think they have a decent chance of landing both ... especially if Rudy Jaramillo is the new Mets manager.

Delgado provides the one thing the Mets need the most: A left-handed hitter that gives you power, average and the ability to get on base 40% of the time. Delgado will be 32 when next season starts and as a result I think he can command a 4-year contract from the Mets with the final year being in some form of option.

Magglio Ordonez may decide to sign with the Mets if they can offer him a solid financial one or two-year package. I have my doubts on Magglio simply because Boras may remind Magglio of how hard it is to hit at Shea (and the negative repurcussions that could have on his next contract).

Cliff Floyd will probably stick around simply because he's still a productive hitter when healthy. He carries an OBP well over .350 regularly and gives you an .800+ OPS most of the time. There is an outside chance that the Mets may try to move him to Anaheim in exchange for Jose Guillen, which in all honesty could be a win/win situation for both teams.

Although I love the idea of Todd Helton patrolling first base for the Mets, I do not think it will happen. I have heard much about Sosa coming to the Mets, but I can't see that happening either.

Phase 3: Minutia.

Minutia is a fun word. This is the part where:

The Mets let John Franco retire.
The Mets look to trade away Mike Stanton.
The Mets look to acquire some bullpen arms.
The Mets look to strengthen the bench.
The Mets look to acquire a solid backup middle infielder.

The Rotation:

• Tom Glavine (L)
• Al Leiter (L)
• Steve Trachsel (R)
• Kris Benson (R)
• Victor Zambrano (R)

The Lineup:

• SS - Jose Reyes (S)
• 2B - Kaz Matsui (S)
• RF - Magglio Ordonez (R)
• 1B - Carlos Delgado (L)
• C - Mike Piazza (R) -- Jason Phillips and/or Vance Wilson as backups
• LF - Cliff Floyd (L) -- or Jose Guillen (R) or Victor Diaz (R)
• CF - Mike Cameron (R)
• 3B - David Wright (R)

Note: Please, no arguments about David Wright and how he should be hitting higher in the lineup. I agree that should be the case, and it would work itself out as the season progressed. Someone would be injured, or perhaps Matsui would be moved to the 8 hole. If Wright is batting 8th for this team in August then chances are we're leading the division.