Getting on Base

31.7%

That is the frequency in which the New York Mets reached based in 2004. In all of Major League Baseball, only two teams got on base less frequently: The Montreal Expos and Arizona Diamondbacks. Mike Piazza lead the Mets this season with a .362 on-base percentage (OBP). In comparison, the Boston Red Sox had a team OBP of .360.

With the rise in popularity of Sabermetrics you might think every team would already be employing some of the basic proven fundamentals. On-base percentage and slugging percentage are very important barometers of success at the plate.

Mark Bellhorn was a little known second baseman on the Red Sox going into the playoffs this year. Although Bellhorn had somewhat of a breakthrough year in 2002 (27 homeruns, .886 OPS) the Cubs pretty much gave up on him in 2003 and shipped him to Colorado.

Despite what the conventional baseball experts saw, Sox GM Theo Epstein saw this "diamond in the rough" and went out and acquired him for the 2004 season. Epstein saw that Bellhorn was never going to hit for tremendous average and that he was prone to striking out. What he also saw, however, was that Bellhorn was quite a productive player. Bellhorn had an uncanny ability to draw walks and when he did make contact he usually hit the ball hard and took extra bases.

His numbers this season with the Red Sox were extremely split. Bellhorn hit for a mediocre .264 average and struck out a whopping 177 times (29% of the time he came to the plate). On the other hand, he was able to hit 57 extra base hits and draw 88 walks, giving him an impressive .373 on-baser percentage (second only to Mark Loretta for second baseman), making Bellhorn one of the more productive second baseman in baseball (.817 OPS).

Bellhorn put up some very interesting numbers in the Division Series and ALCS and showed just how critical on-base percentage can be. He hit a repulsive .091 in the Division Series, but posted a .375 on-base percentage by drawing 5 walks in 3 games. Against the Yankees he hit a mere .192, but walked 5 times with 2 doubles, 2 homeruns, 3 runs and 4 RBI. Hitting around .150 for the two series he was still quite a productive player.

The Mets, in contrast, have hardly anyone that knows how to get on base. The great 1999 and 2000 Mets teams were loaded with solid OBP players like Olerud, Ventura, Zeile, Piazza, Alfonzo and Henderson.

Fast forward three losing season. In 2004, Richard Hidalgo was showering us with a .296 OBP. Jose Reyes over the past few seasons has given us 521 plate appearances and only 18 walks. While Karim Garcia was here he was giving us a .274 OBP. Kaz Matsui playing the role of leadoff hitter gave us a moderate .336 OBP in the first half ... and then dropped to a .316 OBP in the second half (despite increasing his batting average by almost 20 points over the same stretch). Jason Phillips, normally a very capable OBP guy, had an awful season and posted a sub-.300 OBP as well. Of course, Mo Vaughn was still costing us millions and didn't get on base once ...

David Wright, Shane Spencer, Eric Valent and Vance Wilson all pretty much provided the Mets with average on-base numbers. Only Mike Piazza and Cliff Floyd posted above average on-base numbers ... and you have to wonder how much of that comes from being pitched around. Piazza posted a .305 OBP in his dismal second half. Floyd, on the other hand, dropped over 50 points in average in the second half but increased his OBP to .365.

On the bright side, there is light at the end of the tunnel. David Wright and Kaz Matsui were both rookies in 2004 and both have a very good chance of seeing improved OBP figures in 2005. Jose Reyes is still extremely young with a boatload of talent and may need a few early years to evolve, much like Orlando Cabrera. Cliff Floyd will should be back (due to his solid OBP and lefty bat) and the Mets are supposedly planning to acquire a few free agent sticks to fill in at RF and 1B.

Although this is not neccessarily the moves I would like to see made, let's imagine that the Mets acquire Carlos Delgado and Magglio Ordonez for 2005 (assuming that due to injuries and age both players do not get huge long term deals, but instead, short term deals). Here is what I would project for 2005 OBP figures (and the increase per player/position from 2004):

Jose Reyes SS .330 OBP (+.030)
Kaz Matsui 2B .340 OBP (+.010)
Carlos Delgado 1B .400 OBP (+.100)
Magglio Ordonez RF .370 (+.070)
Cliff Floyd LF .360 (no change)
Mike Piazza C .380 (+.020)
David Wright 3B .360 (+.030)
Mike Cameron CF .340 (+.020)

Other options exist as well. Perhaps the Mets go out and sign (or trade for) a J.T. Snow, John Olerud, Doug Mientkiewicz or Tino Martinez type for first base. Either way, the Mets need to acquire more players that can get on base for 2005.