Pitching versus Hitting

Some people will always tell you that pitching is the key to winning. Others will tell you that you cannot win without scoring runs. Others still will tell you that neither is more critical than the other and a balance is required. What exactly is the truth and how does it apply to the New York Metropolitans?

Let's take more of an in-depth look at pitching versus hitting. In particular, let's stick with the rotation, two setup men and a closer (staff of 8) versus the 8 position players you have in the field. We'll leave backups, utility players and other pen arms out of this. A simple 8 versus 8.

Each position player will give you roughly 1/9th of the at-bats in a game, which is about 11% of all offense. Let's assume a few pinch hitters and some pitchers getting at-bats and call it 10%. That means each position player (when healthy) will account for 10% of a team's offensive success (or failure).

Starting pitchers will usually start once every 5 days and give you 6+ innings or so. Of your typical 9 inning games, that is about 70% of your pitching. Divided by 5, that means that your average starter will give you almost 15% of your pitching. Your ace and #2 starter are probably closer to 18% of your pitching. Your closer and setup men will probably account for about 15% of your innings as well.

So up front it would seem as if pitching and offense is equally as important, but in truth, the most important roster spot on your team is your starting rotation. Each position player accounts for 5% of your teams productivity, while each starter will account for about 7-10% of your team's productivity.

A guy like Randy Johnson will essentially give you around 1000 batters faced each season. Your typical all-star hitter will probably give you 600-700 plate appearances in a season. Based on these numbers, four top-tier starters in your rotation could account for 3400-4000 at-bats in a season. On the other hand, 4 top-tier hitters are only going to give you about 2400-2700 at-bats. Starting pitchers are essentially going to be involved in 130-150% of the ABs that your top 4 hitters will be, it's just the nature of the game.

Through the 90's, both the Braves and the Yankees relied heavily on this theory. Sometimes the Yankees would even masquerade as an offensive monster, but with guys like Scott Brosius, Luis Sojo, Mark Lemke and Terry Pendleton in the lineup, it was obvious that the quality depth in the rotation was the absolute key to both teams success.

Barry Bonds is making $18 million per year, while an ace like Randy Johnson is making only $16 mill. If Bonds accounts for 6% of the offensive opportunities and Johnson accounts for 10% of your pitching opportunities, does that mean Randy is worth $36 million per season? That is a loaded question since there are many factors that are being left out, but I feel it is safe to say that starting pitching is underpaid in Major League Baseball.

How does this pertain to the New York Mets? Well, I would like to see the Mets go out and spend the money on a formidable starting rotation. Names like Kris Benson, Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano wont strike fear into the hearts of men. With Glavine and Leiter aging, they wont either.

The Mets should consider a new approach in 2005. Steve Trachsel is a bargain at his salary, but again, not effective enough as the #3 guy (swingman) in your rotation. I have little faith in Kris Benson and do not believe he should be signed, but that is an article for another day. Zambrano actually has some real potential as a #4 starter and given the Kazmir trade will probably be here in 2004.

Going forward, the Mets could effectively spend $35 million on the front 4 starters in their rotation (including Zambrano) and these 4 guys would handle about 30-35% of all at-bats in Mets games in 2005. With the host of names out there in 2005 (Pavano, Clement, Radke, are just a few of the names), the Mets should focus on enhancing that rotation, sticking with guys like Vic Diaz (on the cheap) to fill their offensive needs.