Assessing the 2004 Mets for 2005

It's time to take a long hard look at the current Mets and begin formulating a plan for 2005. Like most Mets bloggers, I am going to imagine that Jim Duquette may actually read my blog and take my advice seriously.

There is no need to dicuss David Wright or Jose Reyes. These guys will be here next year and their positions are clear. The same holds true for Kaz Matsui and Mike Cameron. Both guys have shown some promise and both guys are under long contracts and wont be moved. Offensively, that leaves us with 4 spots to play: First base, Catcher, Left Field and Right Field.

Mike "Deep Dish" Piazza

Where else can you start? He is the crown jewel of the organization, a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and the only thing on our roster that resembles a star. Heading into 2004, the question was "Is Mike Piazza Old?". The answer in 2004 was clearly a "yes". The question for 2005 is "Can we trade him?". Piazza still may have something in the tank as a DH/C for a competing AL team. I am convinced that given the chance to DH regularly Piazza can probably give you 500 ABs, a .300 average, a .400 OBP, 35 HR and 100 RBI. I am also now convinced that Piazza needs to be in the middle of a potent lineup. The less support he has around him, the more he seems to struggle. He's at his best when there are runners clogging the bases and a bat or two behind him in the lineup. You would think that this would be true for any power hitter, and to some degree it is, but for Mike it seems even more paramount. I think the combination of losing, the pressure of carrying the team and the head-trip for power hitters that is hitting at Shea have begun to add up taking a cumulative toll on Mike.

If the Mets are either compelled or forced to retain Piazza and let him finish his career here, it needs to be a as catcher and not a first baseman. The Mets defense can't afford to take a hit like that. Some teams can hide a clunky 1B with a potent offense or solid defense at all other positions, but not that Mets. They have neither the run producers nor the gloves to get away with that. Obviously Piazza at $16 Million in 2005 catching, playing in about 120 games and hitting under .300 is not the best use of money. If Piazza is kept around, the Mets are making the statement that they are going for it in 2005 and will need to add one or two significant bats to the order. The reality is that the Mets cannot afford to keep Mike on the team in 2005, unless they are willing to spend the big bucks to make it worthwhile.

Clifford "The Big Red Dawg" Floyd

Cliff is not what you call expensive ($7 million). Cliff is oft injured. Cliff has heart. Cliff doesn't beat around the proverbial bush. Cliff doesn't like to run. Cliff hates turf. Cliff will dive head first for soft liners. Cliff is hobbled. Cliff can still steal bases. Cliff is a pure hitter. Cliff has some awful swings. The point here is that you never know what you are going to get from Cliff on any given night. Cliff used to be an above average hitter in baseball, but lately he's been more like an average MLB corner outfielder, and when he's injured, well, he's no real help at all. You begin to wonder what would be more productive for the Mets: 155 games from Victor Diaz or 100 from Cliff Floyd?

Cliff wont be playing first base for the Mets next year. If he does, our defense with Piazza catching, Cliff at first and Matsui learning second base is sure to be the pits once again. The way I see it, Floyd still has trade value, simply because he's only making $7 mill and can still hit righties hard. There has to be an AL club willing to take Cliff, even if it means the Mets have to chip in a couple million. An AL team will realize that the key to keeping his bat in the lineup is keeping him in the DH slot. Bottom line: If the Mets do not go out and ink a marquee first baseman, then either Richard Hidalgo or Cliff Floyd need to go for an offensive upgrade.

Richard "The Legend Of" Hidalgo

Pros: Solid glove, decent and likeable guy, fantastic arm, seems generally healthy, most of his long balls leave any park. When he's hot, he's as good as Pujols.

Cons: Very streaky, not a good hitter for average, prone to the strikeout, homeruns come in clumps. When he's cold, he's Ray Sanchez.

What I like about Hidalgo is that he's still fairly young and has tremendous upside. The guy has the potential to hit 40 HR in a season. The downside is that he also has the potential of hitting 20 HR in a season with a low average. Hidalgo gives you much better defense than Floyd, a better attitude and should cost about the same. If I had to chose, I would trade Floyd, re-sign Hidalgo and then pursue a left handed bat I could count on. What I don't want to see is the Mets keeping both guys and then going with the old "When our team is healthy" campaign they used over the last two seasons. When you have two of your heart-of-the-order guys both being offensively unreliable for different reasons you are in trouble.

"Wilson Phillips"

Very tough call right now ... because it looks like Jason has finally broken out of his horrific slump. He's hitting .357 in September so far and raised his average 20+ points, which at this point in the season is an impressive feat. The real question is how much of 2004 was a slump and how much of his rookie year was a fluke? I am one of those people that feel Phillips is closer to his 2003 self than his 2004 self. He's probably never going to be a 25 HR guy and he's probably never going to be a .310 hitter. Having said that, he's got a very good eye and and is an OBP machine. His OBP is still 80 points higher than his average. As a #8 hitter he'd be one of the better ones in the majors if he can be the 2003 JP. His defense is also above average and his salary is dirt cheap.

Vance is also an adequate catcher with an adequate bat. Every time Vance seems to turn a corner he gets hurt and then returns to a backup role. Poor guy. I am more than fine with Phillips and/or Vance as our 2005 catcher, but that would have to mean that Piazza is traded. We cannot go another season with Vance, Mike, Eric and Jason splitting 1B/C duties. We need a legitimate bat at first base, and if that means keeping Mikey at catcher, then either Vance or Jason probably needs to be moved.

"The Rotation"

The Mets currently have a ton of question marks in their rotation.

1. Al Leiter: Kick in his option, buyout and re-sign, or just buyout?
2. Tom Glavine: Can you trade him? Do you trade him? Will he allow it?
3. Steve Trachsel: How's that shoulder? Time to part ways, or keep him on?
4. Kris Benson: Will he even be a Met? Should he?
5. Victor Zambrano: How is that elbow anyway?

Then you have your others ... Aaron Heilman, Jae Seo, Matt Ginter and other AAA candidates.

The Mets have a million options here, but here is what I would probably do.

1. Just give Leiter his darn option. If you try to re-sign him cheaper you are only going to save a few million anyway, and you may just make the situation ugly. Leiter may decide to just pursue a spot with the Yankees, who will probably be more than willing to pay him. Leiter is a quality pitcher that can win in the big spot. Lock him in for his last year. Don't cheap out.

2. Try to trade Glavine. The guy is chasing 300 wins and it's obvious things aren't working out with the Mets. Send him somewhere that has some run support. Sounds like Boston may be the only option really, and it might actually be a good fit. Mets are probably going to need to chip in some salary. Yeah, Tommy has a no trade clause, you really think he'd be unwilling to use it if it meant he could get out of NY? If you can't trade him, then try to get him some run support in 2005 :)

3. If Kris Benson and Victor Zambrano are as good as advertised, then you probably can part ways with Steve Trachsel. There are probably a dozen teams that could use a reliable starter in exchange for a solid pen arm or prospect. At this stage the Mets should call a spade a spade and upgrade their rotation. Names like Radke, Pavano, Clement and Morris all sound intriguing and the team lacks an ace of any kind. In fact, lately the team has lacked a #2 starter as well. We need some younger energetic front-of-the-rotation arms. Pavano should probably be target #1, but looks like the Yankees will eat him up.

4. In regards to Kris Benson, do not feel compelled to sign him despite the bonehead move the Mets made before the trade deadline to get him. You can always stick with Trachsel and let Benson go. I doubt the Mets would consider it though for PR reasons so I wont go into that option too much.

5. I actually like Zambrano and think that as long as he can stay healthy he's going to be a plus pitcher for us, probably good enough to be a competitive #3 guy. If you can keep him in the 4 or 5 spot in your rotation (by adding a free agent stud), chances are he will win a majority of his decisions.

"The Pen"

Wow, we stink here. Looper is showing his true colors lately. Personally I was never sold on Looper and never will be. I think he would make an excellent setup man for a good closer, but he's not a top tier closer and only masquerades as one. I like what I see from Fortunato, Moreno and between Strickland, Bottalico and the other righties we have, I think we are okay there. What we really need is a solid, effective and reliable left-handed arm in the pen, and Mike Stanton isn't it. Our farm is void of solid lefty pen arms and we should consider a transaction that brings one here.

"The Bench"

Jeff Keppinger might make for a very solid utility infield guy. I think he'll start next year in AAA though because he could be a .300 hitter at the major league level and the Mets will want to develop him. Zeile will be retired. Danny Garcia may be your 2005 utility guy with Victor Diaz and/or Jeff Duncan as your 4/5 outfielders. A bench is always easy to populate so no real worries here. It's the core that is hurting on our team.