Old Backstop's Take on the 5th Starter Race

It seemed only a week ago that Met fans bragged about their 5th starter competition, with all 5 of the contestants being somewhere between sharp and dominant. Several of the hurlers even had an ERA under 1. Everything was milk and honey, and picking the 5th starter seemed like a win-win decision.

Enter reality ...

Grant Roberts

Grant Roberts began pre-season as the "favorite son" in regards to the 5th position. Freshly knighted as a starting pitcher (after bullpen relegation in previous seasons), Grant was coming in with a new lease on life. Perhaps more importantly, Grant had a very good history of major league performance when his frail arm allowed him to be on the mound. In addition, Roberts is out of options. That means the Mets either keep him on the major league roster, or lose him to another team.

Grant started Spring Training exactly as people thought he would. A modest ERA, a solid number of strikeouts, good BAA (Batting Average Against) and a nice WHIP (Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched). For a while, it seemed like the only question mark would be whether or not his arm could hold up. In his last two starts, however, he has looked considerably worse.

He was shelled on Wednesday to the tune of 7 earned runs in about 4-5 innings of work, struggling with his command and giving up several long balls. Supposedly he was "battling the flu", but I find it suspicious when health reports come out after a player has a bad performance (and not before).

The 5th starter job was Grant's job to lose before yesterday's pitiful outing, but now there is serious doubt. Most of us were wishing for the regular season to start, but regarding the 5th starter spot, you'd love to see Grant throw in a few more appearances.

Grant's Line: 6 Games, 3 Starts, 1-1 W/L, 5.55 ERA, 24.1 IP, 20 K's, 11 BB's, .280 BAA.

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Tyler Yates


Statistically, Yates has looked amazing thus far. Right now, he is the only candidate that still has what you would call dominating numbers. I personally like to read between the lines, however.

For starters, Tyler has very little experience as a starter. He spent almost all of his time in the minors as a bullpen hurler (originally in the A's system). During Spring Training, Yates has held opposing batters to a low .220 average, and his 3-0 record and 0.64 certainly look fantastic as well.

It needs to be said, however, that Yates has thrown in fewer games and fewer innings than Roberts, and Roberts looked pretty impressive until his last start. Also, Yates has been throwing more often than not against B squads (and this a lot more AAA players). Also, despite being a fireballer, he has had very few strikeouts (when compared to the 1 per inning you are seeing from guys like Roberts and Heilman).

As good as Yates has looked, I would still lean towards sending him to AAA for seasoning. He has the option, he's still very much learning (and can use refinement) and of all 5 candidates, he would probably take the demotion the best, since he was the longshot coming in. He can head to AAA knowing he aced his test, and now the Mets are going to look at him seriously as a starter in the short term.

Tyler's Line: 4 Games, 3 Starts, 3-0 W/L, 0.64 ERA, 14.0 IP, 7 K's, 3 BB's, .220 BAA.

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Scott Erickson

Scott Erickson was brought in as a veteran presence and insurance policy for the 5th starter spot. Due to the terms of Erickson's contract (where he has the option to go to AAA or head to another major league team), chances are slim that he will be a Met unless he makes the rotation.

He has pitched well enough to draw interest from several teams, including the Giants and Twins. One would have to think the Yankees are interested as well, given their current rotation health problems. Either way, all teams are hoping that Erickson gets cut from the Met rotation so they can go snatch him up. In all honesty, Erickson is probably hoping the Mets do release him, because he might be able to cash in on a solid Spring.

Although his appearances and starts have been somewhat limited, Erickson's 3.75 ERA shows he can make it as a 5th starter somewhere as long as his arm holds up. He's obviously a short-term solution at 38.

One potential approach would be to give the 5th spot to Erickson (moving Roberts temporarily into the bullpen as long relief). This would keep Roberts on your roster, allowing you to give him ample rest (you could even keep him strictly as long relief for Seo or Erickson on a 5-day basis). In the process, you showcase Erickson at the major league level for a start or two, and then trade him to some desperate contender (like the Giants or Yankees) for a fringe prospect.

Scott's Line: 3 Games, 2 Starts, 0-2 W/L, 3.75 ERA, 12.0 IP, 6 K's, 5 BB's, .289 BAA.

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James Baldwin

James Baldwin thus far, much like Yates, has had a great Spring Training. His comeback couldn't be going any better. In addition to an impressive .182 BAA and ERA under 1, Baldwin is hitting .750 with 4 RBI in 4 at-bats. What more could you want?

Well, again, we need to read between the lines here. For starters, Baldwin, like Yates, has been facing B squads regularly. He also only has 12 innings of work (like Erickson), which is not a whole lot to go on. A major league veteran like Baldwin can probably have his way with AAA kids when they only get to see him once in a game. Right now, he looks pretty dominating, walking only one and getting just about everyone he faces out.

More importantly is Baldwin's track record. The guy is a 5 ERA waiting to happen. For his entire career, his ERA has pretty much been around 5, hardly straying above or below. I don't care how many goose eggs this guy throws up in Spring Training, you know he's going to be a 5th starter at best if he makes it back to the show.

The Mets are sending him to AAA to continue financing his rehabilitation (do I sound bitter about these short term contracts?), and in a worst case scenario, come May, he's no longer our insurance policy to kick around. It's nice having him there, because you know if any of our 5 goes down to injury, you can bring up a seasoned veteran pitcher that can give you some innings.

James' Line: 3 Games, 2 Starts, 1-0 W/L, 0.75 ERA, 12.0 IP, 7 K's, 1 BB, .182 BAA.

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Aaron Heilman

Although no one else seems to be, I am very impressed with this kid so far. He obviously has the "stuff" you need to succeed in the majors. Heilman has 6 starts under his belt and 20 or so innings, most of which were against A squads. He has 22 strikeouts and 5 walks in those appearances and his ERA is a very respectable 3.26.

If it weren't for the Great Grant Roberts Roster Fiasco, I would be all for making Heilman the #5 starter for opening day. He's earned it. Because of a poor showing last year in the majors, you can justify sending him down for some tweaking to start the season. He's got the option and he is still young enough where it isn't a travesty. The idea would be that he gets the call as soon as possible to return to the bigs.

James' Line: 6 Games, 4 Starts, 2-1 W/L, 3.26 ERA, 19.1 IP, 22 K's, 5 BB's, .247 BAA.

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Conclusion

The Mets now have some difficult choices ahead of them. It is possible that sending a guy like Heilman back to AAA can mess with his psyche. It's possible the same can happen sending Roberts to the bullpen. I'll start with the easy decisions:

1. Send Baldwin to AAA. Baldwin has already agreed and like most struggling veterans, he's probably ecstatic that his comeback is going so well and he wouldn't mind such a move. He knows as long as he keeps it up, there will be a major league paycheck coming his way.

2. Keep Roberts on the roster. Simply put: If we don't, we lose him. He's cheap and can get batters out.

3. Send Yates to AAA. He probably expected that all along. Pat him on the back, tell him he has surprised everyone and that the Mets are really behind his development as a starter now at Norfolk. Have Peterson's best people keep a close eye on him.

Now for the tougher decisions. How to deal with Erickson, Heilman, Seo and Robert's spot on the roster.

Option A: Give Erickson the 5th spot, move Roberts to long relief (very short term), send Aaron down and try to trade Erickson for something within the first month of the season.

Option B: Give Roberts the 5th spot and either send Heilman down to AAA or keep him on as long relief. Option Erickson (and lose him).

Option C: This one is a little more off the wall, but not so ridiculous that it can't be mentioned. Give Heilman the 4th starter spot and Roberts the 5th starter spot. Send Jae Seo down the minors (a la Trachsel a few years ago) to work out his kinks. Option Erickson (and lose him).

In all honesty, I can see the logic in any of these moves. I'm curious to see what direction the Mets head in.