5th Starter Race: Results are In

Current Mets 2004 Rotation

The Mets have made their decision on how to handle the bottom of the rotation to begin 2004 and frankly, I am surprised. In all of the analysis and scenarios I broke down, I never expected what the Mets did.

In what can only be described as a combination of veteran experience and youthful exuberance, the Mets decided to make young fireballer Tyler Yates the 4th starter, and the grizzly Scott Erickson the #5 starter. In the process, they sent last year's success story Jae Seo, along with Aaron Heilman, down to AAA Norfolk. They also moved Grant Roberts back into the bullpen.

For the record, I want to say that I am very excited about Tyler Yates and his future with the Mets. He's come a long way in a very short period of time, transitioning to the role of starter (after spending most of his career in the minors as a reliever). This article should not be interpreted as anti-Yates as I am very eager to see Yates succeed with the Mets. I just would prefer it not to be done at the expense of other Met prospects.

Trigger Happy

Did the Mets make their decision too soon? With several of the #5 candidates still scheduled to pitch on Sunday (including Yates and Seo, among others), the Mets pulled the trigger on their decision. Yates rewarded them by having a very poor outing.

Since Yates had pitched very few innings to that point, his stats ballooned from impressive to mediocre. Suddenly he was a guy with a not-so-impressive 4.00 ERA and a mediocre .261 batting average against. In 5 games and 18 innings, Yates had only struck out 10 batters, a sign that he was by no means dominating or over-powering in his Spring Training. His WHIP is a respectable 1.28, but again, not what you would call impressive.

Did the Mets make a premature decision with Yates? In my unqualified opinion, I would say yes. Aaron Heilman are Grant Roberts, for example, were both striking out about 1 batter per inning pitched. Yates, who is supposedly a strikeout pitcher with velocity, was only striking out people at half the rate. I would consider that what we like to call a 'red flag'. When your young fireballer isn't striking people out at the rates he usually did at AAA, it may be a sign that he needs more polishing.

Let's also mention what kind of Stamina Yates might have. In 5 appearances, he has averaged just over 3 innings per start. Considering that he has spent the majority of his minor leagues as a reliever, are we sure that this kid can pitch 6-7 innings every 5th day? It could be somewhat of a gamble.

Seo What?

Jae Seo had a weak Spring, no one can really debate that. There was also word of Seo "refusing" to throw breaking pitches during one of his outings. The New York media would have you believe that both Peterson and Howe are both fairly unhappy with Jae Seo's performance and attitude this Spring. How much of that is reality is another question.

Jae Seo finished the Spring with a bloated 7.48 ERA. He was very hittable, giving up 30 hits in about 22 innings. Was he bad enough to send to Norfolk? Perhaps, but it should have been with the understanding that he was going down to work out his problems, a la Steve Trachsel when he first joined the Mets.

However you paint it, slice it or dice it, the Mets seriously screwed up in the handling of Jae Seo. If there was a chance that he could be demoted to AAA Norfolk, then he should have been told during the offseason that he would be fighting for a spot in the rotation this Spring. At a minimum, he should have been told the job was "his to lose". Instead, the Mets told him he was a lock for the #4 spot in the rotation, suddenly changing the stance with about a week left in Spring Training.

Jae Seo may have been working on a pitch or two, or on his mechanics (with Peterson). We really don't know the whole story. What we do know is that Jae Seo is (rightfully) insulted and was caught off-guard by this move. As a Met fan, I truly hope this does not blow up in our faces. I hope that Seo does not end up a solid starter somewhere else while Yates blows up in his premature debut.

Aaron Heilman: Was he robbed?

Yes, I think he was. I can understand the decision to send Seo to Norfolk, although his Spring was no worse than that of Mike Stanton or Braden Looper. I have heard many people saying things like "Heilman stinks" and "Heilman needs more work". In fact, the only person who seems to think Heilman is any good, is me. For the doubters, let me toss out some numbers and facts.

I am going to remove James Baldwin from the 5th starter equation, simply because he pitched too few innings and pitched them exclusively against B squads. His numbers are too unreliable as a result.

Of the 4 real candidates (Erickson, Yates, Heilman and Roberts), Heilman had the lowest ERA (3.26), the lowest batting average against (.247), the most strikeouts per inning (22 in 19 IP), the best K:BB ratio (almost 5:1), and the lowest WHIP (1.19). Roberts has an extensive amount of experience as a starting pitcher, with more stamina than guys like Roberts and Yates, so what gives?

Aaron Heilman pitched in the majors quite a bit to end 2003, with results that were anything but impressive. He did exactly what he was asked for 2004: He improved. His command was better, he was striking out more batters than anyone else in the Mets rotation and he only walked 5 batters in 6 games. His ERA wasn't filthy, but at 3.26, it was half of a run lower than the 3.78 ERA that Steve Trachsel used to win 16 games in 2003.

Considering Heilman's numbers were better in every category than those of Yates, Heilman really deserved a spot in the rotation.

Why Yates?

I personally think that the Mets may be secretly rushing Yates through the system in order to move him in a trade. They are stocked when it comes to 4th and 5th starters and Yates may be the guy the feel has the most trade value and lowest long-term ceiling.

Of course, I could be wrong and the Mets may be pushing him into the rotation simply because it gives them the best chance to win right now, but that doesn't really make much sense does it? When you consider the Mets "new plan" to be patient with their pitchers and not rush them through the system, it makes very little sense that Yates is suddenly a middle-of-the-rotation guy on the club after just over a dozen solid innings in Spring Training games.

What about Roberts?

Roberts did nothing to hurt his standing, but he also failed to impress. I think the main factor with Roberts at this point is that there seems to be some major stamina issues. Most of his worst innings occured as he wore down at the end of a start. I have to wonder, however, if moving him back into the pen is the best move. Roberts has been effective in the pen, there is no question there, but can his arm hold up? Supposedly, the Mets made tried him as a starter because his arm was not suited for the bullpen.

If the Mets feel that Grant's arm can't handle the pen, and they don't have plans to use him as a starter, then he should be used in a package to upgrade them in right field by dealing him to a club that would love to give Grant a shot at their rotation.

I think the Mets may still be thinking of Roberts as a long-term solution as part of their rotation.

Erickson and Baldwin: The Veterans

You have to be pleased with the performances thus far of both Erickson and Baldwin. Both look like they can be viable major league starters at this point, and the Mets are lucky to have both hanging around as potential trade bait. Erickson, because of his contract, gets the nod as the Mets 5th starter. Baldwin, because of his contract, gets sent down to AAA where he can yawn himself through a month worth of starts.

The beauty of April is that you can be sure a few pitchers around the majors will end up on the DL. When they do, you can be sure that the Mets will be sending out flyers on Erickson and Baldwin that read "Cheap, Experienced and Effective Starts On Sale Now!". What we can get in a transaction will depend on needs, timing, the early performances of our veteran hurlers, and who else we may be willing to include in a package.

Conclusion

I am only a fan watching from the outside, and that was limited to televised Spring Training games. Obviously the Mets hierarchy knows more about their staff than I do, so I will have to take their word on things. I have to wonder, however, if the Mets have an alterior motive here. Reason? The decision here simply seems to make no long-term sense for the Mets.

If Aaron Heilman, Jae Seo, Grant Roberts and Tyler Yates are all long term answers for the Mets, why did Scott Erickson make the rotation? If Heilman is part of the long-term future of the Mets, why didn't he get the rotation spot he earned? If Yates is part of our future, why are we rushing him headlong into the majors?

I smell trades. Yates, Seo, Heilman, Erickson, Baldwin and Roberts. Which of these guys will be with the club at the all-star break? Only time will tell ...